End of "Unrestricted Oil"?.. Radical Transformations Shake Energy Markets and Redraw Global Rules

Economic expert Ziyad Al-Hashimi warned today (Thursday, April 30, 2026) that the world may be facing a radical transformation in the nature of the global oil market, affirming that the current crisis is no longer merely price fluctuations, but reflects a profound change in the rules of energy management at the global level. Al-Hashimi, citing international analyses, indicated that OPEC no longer enjoys the same cohesion it previously had, amid signs of declining discipline within it, which may weaken its ability to control production and prices. He added that navigation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have revealed the fragility of one of the most important global energy arteries, explaining that the reliance of a large part of oil trade on politically and security-sensitive sea lanes has become an increasing risk to supply stability. He clarified that oil is no longer viewed merely as an economic commodity, but has become part of national security calculations, as countries now focus on the source of energy and the security of its access, not just its price in global markets. He noted that the United States has strengthened its position as an influential player in the energy market, having transformed from a major consumer to a producer and exporter capable of affecting supply and demand balances, and even benefiting from price fluctuations. He also pointed out that the OPEC+ alliance faces a difficult test if some producers prefer increasing their market shares over adhering to production cut policies, which could lead to a decline in the alliance's effectiveness in regulating the market. He noted that countries in Asia and Europe have already begun searching for energy alternatives by diversifying their sources, even at higher costs, aiming to reduce dependence on the Middle East region and its vital passages. He affirmed that the coming phase will witness a rise in the cost of "energy security," due to reliance on more distant or safer sources, meaning increased transportation and insurance costs, in addition to the trend toward long-term local investments. He indicated that oil prices will remain subject to sharp fluctuations, as they could rise rapidly with any threat to supplies, or fall in case of increased production to maintain market shares. Global energy markets are witnessing rapid changes amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and the shift in countries' priorities from economic efficiency to energy security.